What will the next RNS contain?

As entertaining as it is seeing the bot flies neutralised on certain websites, thoughts should be more to the positive, ie the next RNS and events ahead.


I’ve got a few contenders I’d like to see, in no particular order :


1. Fuller Explanation of reasons for suspension, CITIC engagement letter signed off and a date for trading to resume (could be amazing – ie bidding process starting)


2. Licence approval at WK – Tipil (seems to be done deal judging by website updates as per screenshot below)


3. Flanks approval at MT (the game changer for reserves)

I don’t think we will see more board appointments, but always open for a pleasant surprise. Some of the theories I’ve seen and heard :

a) 2 stage bidding round with 8-9 firms interested
b) special situation funds x2 taking a min 3% stake and TR1 announcements soon after relisting
c) PGM hedge funds interested in purchasing a stake
d) other banks trying to outdo CITIC and VTB to get involved as not so many M&A deals this year

Facts vs Opinions

Timings

Unlike some special people who claim to know the ins and outs to within a few minutes, I prefer to consider what is likely in the coming weeks and months. Our Board of Directors are professionals, the notion of a leak is not worth considering.

Nomad RNS – Whilst it would have been better to stick to original timings, this didn’t happen. Not the end of the world. Now we are in a period without a Nomad, it makes some sense to wait until w/c 25th May to announce the Nomad appointment, gives the company longer to add extra information about flank approvals or opening bids.

When trading resumes – some people will want to sell, many investors and funds will wish to buy, share price will react accordingly. Rose 100% in the couple of weeks before suspension so no reason to doubt this will stop. Could see 15-20p by end of June if buying pressure continues.

Sale of Monchetundra – main asset to be sold, expect to see some bids this summer that recognise what 15Moz of Palladium are worth over the next 20 years (over $25bn after AISC of $325/oz taken into account). Norilsk Nickel in pole position with proximity (as recent RNS kindly reiterated). Max price once flanks approved $2-2.5bn

Sale of West Kytlim – keep producing until it is sold to maximise revenue. No need to sell on the cheap, expect minor producers to be interested. Makes sense to sell at similar time to Monchetundra if suitable bid received. If recent plans to increase production are feasible, expect Max price $500m

So as many others have said before, Eurasia could be worth up to $3bn when sold in full. So much room to grow from current 7.2p, look beyond the Nomad ‘issue’, once it is sorted it will be full steam ahead…

Why Monchetundra could be worth >$14bn by 2026

So we know from RNS that West Kytlim is planned for eventual scale up to 2tons a year, probably to show what it is worth to a new owner.

We know there is a ready to go plan for Monchetundra involving SinoSteel for around 4tons (approx 125Koz) a year. Alexei Churakov gave a Kommersant interview in January stating likely EBITDA of $250m from this.

What would happen to share price upon resumption if a similar scale up plan has been devised for Monchetundra to take advantage of the 15Moz resource with flank approval granted?

No point digging out 150kz a year, you’d be there 100 years!

It would make more sense to see them aim higher, maybe a plan for 780Koz so life of mine is around 18-20years. This will take a few years to achieve, but the low cost nature of extraction via open pit will mean new owners can start production by 2021, maybe 2022 at the latest.

Higher potential EBITDA – $1.5bn to $2bn a year means much higher company valuation.

Allow a hefty discount for building the bigger facility, probably around $1bn, you’d still be looking at $4-5bn to ensure you secured the asset that will generate $15-$20bn over less than 20 years.

(This is conservative as well – 15MOz at Pd price each year, less $325/Oz costs)

This may mean some investors need to be a little patient whilst the plans are drawn up. It doesn’t mean Eurasia will be activating the plans, think of it as a feasibility study.

It is very hard not to be optimistic about the future when you work out what this vast resource will yield.

Gulag Capital Partners – Eurasia Mining report

Key Summary

Recommendation BUY
Target price – 70p GBP (+870% vs current share price of 7.20p GBP)

This is very worthwhile reading if considering an investment into EUA. Concise summary of events, detailed risk analysis and considered opinion.

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Gulag CP - Eurasia Mining - 07 March 2020

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Disclaimer

Please remember, the value of any investment can go up or down and this article should not be taken as investment advice.

Can Eurasia cover the million ounce Palladium deficit?

With 15 million ounce reserves, it could sort the deficit out for 15 years or so.

Extra potential in wider area for 40 million ounce

Financial Argument

1Moz a year would need a plan to mine 32 tons PGM a year…

Once built, it would yield EBITDA approx $2bn a year net profit assuming AISC of $325/Oz and Pd price around $2325/Oz

Using 5x average as mine life is 15 years, the mine would be worth about $10bn or £2.75 a share for Eurasia Mining when you take into account the 80% ownership

A discussion on Eurasia Mining

The darling of AIM over the last few months, generating more comments, tweets, bulletin board posts than any other share. Founded in 1995, they are a precious metals mining firm with two main areas of interest at Monchetundra and West Kytlim, both in Russia. Low cost, open pit mines with stable power supply and steady political background.

For background information on the company, visit their website at www.eurasiamining.com

Where has share price growth come from?

Lets examine the RNS timeline for EUA :

Increasing from 0.4p in Mid October to 7.2p at time of suspension on 10th February, many investors have profited already. The question remains where it is going to end up at this year.

Where is it heading next?

As Eurasia transitions from exploration and small scale mining to a larger entity, the company has gone into a lockdown of sorts whilst they are assumed to be negotiating the sale of assets. We have had a few pieces of information courtesy of the recent articles in Kommersant :

Key takeaways from these articles are an expected EBITDA of $250m based on 4 tons a year production at Monchetundra, with now another 2 tons of production at West Kytlim to add to their healthy basket of Palladium, Platinum, Rhodium, Copper, Cobalt and Nickel.

I’ve taken the recent suspension to give a fresh perspective on the events of last 3 months. I have extended my timelines on the process of a sale to reflect the complexity and number of different types of bidder who will have differing areas of interest in Eurasia Mining.

“Physical shortage is coming faster than expected” – whilst some wise people have predicted this event would arrive, the mainstream have been oblivious to PGM shortages until this month. This was the key thought for me that unlocked a new way of looking at things.

The shortage coming faster than expected has opened new options. It now makes a lot more sense to attract more interest before letting people bid. Whilst shares are suspended, everyone is locked in and waiting for updates.

Once you have a bid it is harder to get the share price higher compared to leaving things a while and the first bid being bigger. Every week the prices of Pd and Rh are increasing… 

So there we have it. In a couple of years time when both mines at MT and WK are fully operational, you could expect EBITDA between $291m and $437m based on 4 and 2 tons respectively. This is based on approved production plans involving SinoSteel, along with the lowest AISC seen globally in PGM space, approx. $325 per ounce.

Appropriate multiples for a PGM mining outfit are open to debate, the following link gives a good guide to many sectors, so it was felt 9.5x would be a good target to aim for with EUA :

Referencing the tables above, a market valuation of between $3.6bn and $6.7bn is achievable under full production plans. Obviously Eurasia are not at this stage yet, but it won’t be that long in the grand scheme of things, whilst Palladium remains in deficit especially so.

So in conclusion, how much will someone be willing to pay to secure :

  • 15Moz of Palladium Equiv
  • 298,000 tonnes Nickel
  • 229,000 tonnes Copper
  • 11,300 tonnes Cobalt

Is it any wonder people consider EUA a bargain at current prices. When the CITIC tweet is clarified, there will be a lot of interest in taking part in the next phase of action for Eurasia Mining.

Disclaimer

Please remember, the value of any investment can go up or down and this article should not be taken as investment advice.