#EUA – video interview with Rosgeo

https://otr-online.ru/programmy/specproekt-otr-professionalnye-prazdniki/geolog-vladimir-ivanchenko-50071.html (opens in new tab)

This interview was found by the top researcher Michael not Mr P from the telegram group. Feel free to join https://t.me/eua_palladium

Interview Summary

Vladimir Ivanchenko is a very reputable geologist in Russia and a senior geologist at Rosgeo (the head geologist at Rosgeo for North West including Kola). He makes the following statements in his interview to OTR, the mainstream TV channel in Russia on 4 April 2021:

1. PAS [GMF78 : is in fact POAZ, it is a typo in the Russian script of the interview, the voice interview clearly says POAZ] is the largest in Europe deposit of PGMs. Palladium resources are 325 tons of palladium, we have estimated platinum – 37 tons, besides platinum and palladium, there is also nickel, copper, cobalt and gold. Nickel – 570 thousand tons, copper – 320 thousand tons, plus a rather large ore occurrence, which, in general, gives the right to work for about 60 years. If in dollars, then this is about 41 billion dollars

[GMF78 : this is now around $42.3bn on current prices]

2. Moreover, Nittis-Kumuzhya-Travyanaya and Poaz, or rather, Nyud-Morshkovoye, all this gives out about 60 billion dollars.

[GMF78 : he means NKT (Eurasia’s MT flanks license) and Nyud (announced by Eurasia as the first project within Rosgeo JV) in total give $60bn.]

3. In addition to this, even before that, large deposits had already been found – these are Plast 330 and Monchetundrovskoe [GMF78: this is our MT production license].

4. Norilsk, there is also ore, in general, there is not so much rich ore, do you understand? Poor ores, they are poorer than we have in Monchegorsk

5. That is, if we compare with Norilsk, ore is mined there at great depths, then in Monchegorsk it is practically on top and its cost is lower than in Norilsk


So we have an area of the Rosgeo JV that their lead geologist is clearly excited about, with a rough value of $60bn assigned to this. The full JV will contain more areas, but it seems the first area Nyud is round $19bn extra in situ value and Eurasia will soon have 75% ownership of the licence for this deposit.

Full transcript

Angelina Grokholskaya: We continue the program dedicated to the Day of the Geologist. Ishaq, please tell me, how many minerals are discovered on earth now? In general, is there any exact figure?
Iskhak Farkhutdinov: At the moment, about 6,000 minerals are already known to geologists and every year more and more minerals are discovered.
Angelina Grokholskaya: How interesting! These are minerals, but are there any new deposits? Because we often hear that the field is closed and depleted.
Iskhak Farkhutdinov: Of course, the deposits are being depleted and therefore it is very important that new geologists appear and look for new deposits, because in fact there are a lot of deposits that have not yet been discovered.
Angelina Grokholskaya: By the way, I also know about one deposit that was recently discovered: a new deposit of nickel and platinum was discovered in the Murmansk region and this is a unique discovery. And we asked Vladimir Ivanchenko, the Honorary Exploration of Subsoil, the leading geologist of the North-West Production and Geological Association, to tell us more about him.
Angelina Grokholskaya: Vladimir Ivanchenko came to geology at the peak of the romanticization of the profession and never regretted his youthful choice. He traveled all over the country: he washed gold in the Magadan region, saw diamond mining in Yakutia, worked in prospecting for antimony, mercury, gold in the Fan Mountains, looked for nickel, palladium, and now platinum on the Kola Peninsula. He believes that it is impossible without luck in the work of a geologist, but this luck is based on knowledge and experience.
Hello Vladimir Nikolaevich!
Vladimir Ivanchenko: Hello!
Iskhak Farkhutdinov: Hello!
Angelina Grokholskaya: Happy Holidays!
Vladimir Ivanchenko: Thank you!
Angelina Grokholskaya: Since we are talking about discoveries, about deposits, about platinum, you know, I want money right away, because platinum is associated with the fact that it is very expensive. How much is platinum now?
Vladimir Ivanchenko: Now the most expensive metal is palladium, it is also made of platinoids, platinum costs $ 38 per gram, and palladium costs $ 84 per gram, and I think it will only go up further, of course.
Angelina Grokholskaya: Everyone is talking about this that minerals will increase in price anyway, so we can say that you have made the whole city richer, or will you do it if everything goes well?
Vladimir Ivanchenko: In principle, yes, I think that Monchegorsk has a great future, and I am a fan of Monchegorsk, I really like Monchegorsk – it is a beautiful city, probably the best on the Kola Peninsula, bright, so joyful, and I want and all the young people stayed in Monchegorsk, did not leave anywhere, had a high-paying job due to the fact that a new combine would work, as well as mines. There were mines at one time, which were closed in the 71st year, and now we are reviving the ore base of Monchegorsk.
Angelina Grokholskaya: Oh, this is a balm for the soul right now, because I already said that I was born on the Kola Peninsula and Monchegorsk is my hometown, so for me your discovery is, of course, a personal story. I suggest now, if you do not mind, do not mind our viewers, take a little walk around Monchegorsk.
Vladimir Ivanchenko: Let’s take a walk together, yes.
Angelina Grokholskaya: Let’s watch a short video.
Angelina Grokholskaya: At the entrance to Monchegorsk there is a monument to pioneering geologists, conquerors of Monche-tundra. 101 years ago, they came to the Kola North, in May 1920, a special train brought a special commission, which included Alexander Fersman. This is what he wrote in his book “A Journey for the Stone”: “Huge ridges were spreading before us, a whole unfamiliar new mountain world was opening up.” A little later Fersman will say: “Here the city will be founded, and the beautiful Monchegorsk will grow among three lakes and three peaks.

” Thanks to the reserves of nickel ore, it received the status of a “city of metallurgists”, but in the 21st century it may become the “platinum capital of the Arctic”.
What’s with this project now? How is it developing?
Vladimir Ivanchenko: We have been working in Monchegorsk for 6 years already. Our first project was – Nittis, remember, there is such a mountain in Monchegorsk?
Angelina Grokholskaya: Yes.
Vladimir Ivanchenko: Nittis and Nyud-Morshkovoye, “Cloudberry Lake”, is also such a pleasant lake – this was our first project, we worked it out, in general, we got a positive result, there is also a large occurrence of platinum-metal ores, then in the 17th year we completed the first project, in the 18th year they started the second project – Poaz, this is where the TV tower in Monchegorsk is. The largest in Europe manifestation of platinoids, which is also associated with the marginal zone, was discovered at Poaz. Palladium resources are 325 tons of palladium, we have estimated platinum – 37 tons, besides platinum and palladium, there is also nickel, copper, cobalt and gold. Nickel – 570 thousand tons, copper – 320 thousand tons, plus a rather large ore occurrence, which, in general, gives the right to work for about 60 years. If in dollars, then this is about 41 billion dollars from this ore, which is in the bowels, a fairly large object. Moreover, Nittis-Kumuzhya-Travyanaya and PAS, or rather, Nyud-Morshkovoye, all this gives out about 60 billion dollars, that is, there is no end to work in Monchegorsk. In addition to this, even before that, large deposits had already been found – these are Plast 330, Monchetundrovskoe, that is, Monchegorsk is slowly gaining, overgrowing with deposits that in the near future, I think, will earn very quickly, because platinum and palladium are in demand , nickel is also in demand. The fact is that Pechenga is already suffocating, because there is not enough ore, the same is with Norilsk, there is also ore, in general, there is not so much rich ore, do you understand? Poor ores, they are poorer than we have in Monchegorsk, that is, if we compare with Norilsk, ore is mined there at great depths, then in Monchegorsk it is practically on top and its cost is lower than in Norilsk, and I think,
Angelina Grokholskaya: Oh, how I would like! Of course, because there were projects, Iskhak, I will say that the city will have to be closed, either work there on a rotational basis …
Vladimir Ivanchenko: It was like that, yes.
Angelina Grokholskaya: Because there were no deposits and all the mines were closed. This is really very good news and straight, you know, I want to give a standing ovation to the geologists for your work, thank you very much!
Iskhak Farkhutdinov: Yes, now it is important that young people go to geology and come to Monchegorsk.
Angelina Grokholskaya: Yes, and of course there are more investors. Vladimir Nikolaevich, you have been in the industry for almost 50 years – this is a huge period, please tell me, but there were some moments, a day, an event, maybe when you wanted to leave?
Vladimir Ivanchenko: You know, there was one moment, I will say frankly, this was my first practice in Yakutia, it was the Markha and Morkoka rivers, we had such an area, we had a 200,000th rent, and the first route was very difficult: the heat was terrible, 35 degrees somewhere, and somewhere late mosquito repellents, and here we go, and there is an overgrown plain and dwarf birches with bushes somewhere around the waist and it was necessary to stomp 30 kilometers, but I have not yet entered the rhythm, very it’s hard, sweat, not to undress, because mosquitoes are horrible – 3 centimeters on the body, everywhere they cover 3 centimeters of mosquitoes, it’s still hot, it’s generally impossible. At the end I think: “Where have I got to? Probably, I need to leave, leave this profession. ” But then heroically we reached, the next day they did not find us with the deer, we had a rest for a day and then the work went like this, and now I remember Yakutia better, than seen at all.

It was very difficult to pass the first route.
Angelina Grokholskaya: Mosquitoes scared me. We walked a lot in the fields, were there any other interesting cases, so curious?
Vladimir Ivanchenko: Once we, when I was still working in Central Asia, I worked for 7 years in Central Asia, and now we worked in the Fan Mountains, carried samples, samples from the stone-ore manifestation were taken, and there the fact is that the bridges were built: 2 sticks were laid , twigs, covered with earth, you go, it all trembles, and we crossed the stream, but the fact is that there are streams – in the morning there is barely water running, and in the evening it all spills when the glaciers begin to melt in the mountains, it turns out such a stormy mudflow a stream that drags stones and all that jazz. And we walk, and the horse that was carrying the furrow samples was loaded with 100 kilograms, probably, we were already finishing work, and the horse falls through and falls into this stormy stream. I had to jump and pull her out of there, because a horse, if it picks up water in its ears, it can drown right away, you know? And so that she does not drown
Angelina Grokholskaya: Yeah, I don’t know how funny he is, you probably remember it with a laugh. Vladimir Nikolaevich, do you have some kind of tradition – how do you celebrate the Day of the Geologist?
Vladimir Ivanchenko: Traditionally, we meet here in a team, we celebrate, as it should be for geologists, we wish those who are in the field, the first toast, the second toast to women, of course, this is how we celebrate, in general, all the friendly good guys in the team, especially now young people came up, which makes us happy, they also want to become good geologists.
Angelina Grokholskaya: Maybe now then, you know, not even congratulations to colleagues, but parting words to your young colleagues, those who are just entering the profession, is that what you always say to them?
Vladimir Ivanchenko: What to say? First, to wish them goals in life, in order to find a deposit, one must believe in this, you know, because without this faith, without knowledge, nothing can be found. I wish them persistence, good luck and congratulate all fellow geologists on the upcoming Day of the Geologist, this year is 55 years of the Day of the Geologist, so I congratulate everyone, I wish everyone great health, good luck, success and good field seasons!
Angelina Grokholskaya: Vladimir Nikolaevich, thank you very much, happy holiday, goodbye!
Vladimir Ivanchenko: Thank you, goodbye!

#EUA – Nyud and MT sale together

So having a think about the RNS today and recent timelines beginning with the EGM

EUA 9.4.21 – Announcement of EGM to gain ability to raise significant funds quickly.

EUA 12.5.21 – Asset sale, leaving the FSP to progress this particular deal, plus one of the potential transactions proposed would invoke AIM rule 15.

EUA 20.5.21 – Private placement for $20m to accelerate progress on Rosgeo JV

EUA 15.6.21 – licence for Nyud is happening. Doesn’t reveal resources but estimates are all over 1Moz say. More like 5-6Moz but that’s beside the point. They haven’t mentioned the resource level for a reason. I suspect JORC status is being sought which will be great to see.

This Monchegorskoe LLC was set up a while ago according to our research, now activated to soon hold the licence 75:25 between EUA and Rosgeo. Point being this has been known about a little while now and certainly before the statement on 12.5.21

Now statements are always correct at time of writing, but to my mind there is no way that a sale of just MT would trigger the fundamental disposal clause. Nyud is big enough to mean this isn’t the case now in my opinion but not proven yet.

Therefore one of the following different scenarios may be true :

  1. Nyud is being sold/part sold with MT and that is why they were keen for the EGM
  2. The sale of MT is imminent before this Nyud transfer takes place.
  3. The sale of MT will happen before another licence granted, if Nyud wasn’t enough.
  4. Aim rule 15 will no longer apply to a sale

If option 1 or 2 are seen as most plausible, then things are very close to the finishing line. The buyer has what they want now potentially. If it is option 3 then the clock is also ticking, just not as fast but within weeks/months not years.

Option 4 serves to remind that news could land at any time. The longer it takes, the bigger the firm becomes.

My opinion – selling Monchetundra and Nyud together

After considering events this morning, I’m of the opinion that the offer to buy just MT was sufficient to end the FSP, because it also includes a part of the Rosgeo JV. It just makes sense to me. What is bigger than the whole company at the time of the FSP and worth changing approach for – answer MT+Nyud

It also makes sense as to why Rosgeo came on board – perhaps the buyer is very well known to Rosgeo, could be another State department for example. Rosgeo wanted the JV to allow them to sell an asset (Nyud) that bordered Monchetundra, they had to get Eurasia involved and make it worth our while, as well as their own time and effort. Don’t forget they’ve been proving up the area, we have seen the research now and it is compelling. Eurasia have stressed how well developed 4 areas are, with 5 needing more work. You can see the strategy in execution now.

Look at the map below, area 1 is now being added to ourexisting resources on the left of the main road to Monchegorsk, how long before 2,3 and 4 join the ranks?

(As borrowed from @richarddugdale3 – I am a map thief, who credits the right person)

Pricing for a sale

This is perhaps the most important part to many, after all that is why we invested. I maintain my fair pricing for Monchetundra and West Kytlim at 94-111p for a sale. Too early to calculate what Nyud may yield, we need to identify the correct resources in the Cadastre. Obviously it will add significant value though.

Share price disconnect – I get it. People are waiting for the asset sale. The market has fixated on the sale and thats fair enough. Equally, I’m trying to demonstrate that yet again that the company is growing whilst progressing on that front. They aren’t going to stand still and do nothing. They state it on most RNS and I trust them to deliver. After all, they stand to benefit more than most with 20% skin in the game.

Please vote at the AGM

I voted in favour, several investors were waiting for an update on what happened to the $20m. You’ve had the update now. The company has done us proud the last 12 months when you think back to being 7.2p and suspended. If all the resolutions pass, they will have the firepower they need to secure more licences over the next 12 months.

#EUA – June thoughts

Something the ‘glass half empty investors’ tend to ignore is that you shouldn’t take each rns in isolation. They tell the story of the company over time.

For example, back in January

“Since launching the Formal Sale Process on 1 July 2020, Eurasia and its advisers have engaged with a wide range of parties, and have to date received non-binding offers in respect of both a possible acquisition of the Company as well as other transaction structures.”

So whatever this current non-binding offer for substantially all the assets will amount to, it is judged superior by the Board to the non-binding offer for the whole company as of Jan 2021.

Now something from the Annual Report becomes very relevant to me, the ‘glass half full investor’…

It credits Dmitry for landing the Rosgeo JV. No offence to the others, but they are geologists and miners and I assume it was Christian doing that JV to keep his exploring boots fresh rather than retiring.
But no, it was arranged by the same person who since September 2020 has been concentrating on M&A, landed the deal to add 75% of 104.6Moz of Pt equiv to the company assets over time.

Why would he do that when his focus is on the company sale – I suggest it is because he is a top top dealmaker. They are bolting on as much as possible for the buyer of Monchetundra. Who probably was interested but asked what else they could get. “You want to buy more?” says the dealmaker, “ Hold my pint, I’ll find you more…”

So here we are, a company on the up, that can raise money at market rates without discount, adding assets most mining exploration firms would have wet dreams over gaining access to.

So yes, it is taking longer than we want, but take the step back, see what is being assembled in front of us – the Beast from the East as Kola Peninsula takes on Bushveld over the rest of the decade.

Annual Review Summary

These two parts are important as they show company progression. Ability to raise serious funds at market rates, bringing on board more Institutional Investors whilst continuing to make progress with the asset sale. With $23m in the bank, they have the tools to develop assets.

The company acknowledge the hard work of employees, nice to see. They also acknowledge our patience – whilst developing the company we own a part of into something much bigger! I have a lot of patience, Barlowesque levels, when they are doing such a good job on this front. It was also nice to see them honouring the late Gary Fitzgerald, who did so much to further the company over 2 decades.

News about Monchetundra

This could be huge. To me, i like a bit of conjecture and I think this is instigated on behalf of the credible party interested in acquiring Monchetundra. I think we will be seeing JORC status on the reserves, whilst they work on proving up most of the 40Moz estimate. Yes 40Moz – underpinning the estimate figure is mentioned as well.

So much to be pleased about now, the progress in the last 12 months is amazing to witness.

Too much is being made of the current share price and talk of the FSP ending. I think it is clear they are working on better options than a full company sale at the time it was explored. Now I hold my hands up at this point, I wanted the full company sale. So apologies to anyone who feels I misled them, I merely express my opinions at the time of writing, same as I am doing today.

However, the palladium, the platinum, the rhodium, the consistently high PGM pricing, Rosgeo, Dmitry the dealmaker, Christian the industry figurehead, James the mining expert – these things are going nowhere.

This is what investing should be based on, analysing the fundamental prospects of a company, the strength of the management team and the desire for others to have what they are building.

All the best to everyone

Voxmarkets Interview Transcript – SP Angel John Meyer

Interview released 13th May 2021 after big RNS 12th May. my notes on the interview, apologies if any errors but this is an important summary from SP Angel who are well placed to give an informative professional opinion. Please listen yourself if you have time, well worth it.


Justin Waite : JW – Voxmarket Host

John Meyer : JM – SP Angel (Eurasia Nomad)

From 20mins in

JW : Eurasia Mining – explain the backstory for people who are not familiar, as it is quite a popular stock

JM : It’s an unusually interesting situation with Eurasia, they’ve been going through a formal sale process, which is a technical term in accordance with the Takeover Panel rules.

They are also expanding their operations at West Kytlim, which is the alluvial mining operations of platinum, palladium, rhodium, or shall we say the platinum group metal elements. Very palladium rich in fact, in these properties. They are going to have 3 sites up and running this year, which is good operationally.

When it comes to the FSP, they tell us they have a number of potential bidders. They’ve been doing due diligence with a number of those. They’ve had an offer for the company, but the best offer they seem to have had is an offer for a number of the assets.

So we’ve had confidence in these assets, but one of the issues has been that those assets are defined under Russian codes and we prefer to work when we are valuing things after a certain amount of extra work has been done, when those assets have JORC or NI 43-101 standard resources on them. But it doesn’t mean they’re not good assets so they are clearly considering whether they accept this offer or not. Clearly been a lot going on behind the scenes in the background.

Very interesting statement from the company today, worth reading that quite carefully. Certainly gives us more confidence.

JW : So you don’t know what the offer is as yet ? They won’t reveal that ?

JM : That’s not revealed and I suspect there’s a bit more work is needed before it is crystallised. But they talk about a proposal from a credible party that would allow us to pay a significant dividend to all shareholders. That would be a good day for the investors.

JW : So what’s happened there, it hasn’t gone up a lot today, it went up at the start and come back down. Are people not so confident in this offer, what’s going on here ?

JM : It’s difficult to know what’s going on behind the market. Sometimes there is a log jam in the orders. If people aren’t willing to sell then the market might not move very much, equally the buyers may just hold off a bit. It’s impossible to know right now.

JW : So basically it’s a wait and see, but it looks ok at the moment, is that what you are saying ?

JM : The statement today adds a degree of confidence, from the way I read it.

JW : Ok, cool. Marvellous, whats the size of it, its one of the best performing stocks of the last 2 years. It’s been Top10 best performing stocks and now its like £630m. It’s a chunky old market cap now isn’t it?

JM : Just going to check… market cap is £752m on my screen

[closed at £772.4m 13/5/21]

Much appreciated for Justin and John to do the interview, very helpful to hear their views.

My own take on this, perhaps the company are looking to issue their resources to JORC standards if that helps progress the sale and could explain a delay in confirming the deal as a huge amount of work needed to do this when you’ve got millions of ounces of PGM to verify. The Nomad sounds upbeat about things, that is important as they will be best placed to understand the situation. Very professional, not giving anything anyway but hints at the bright future we are all looking forward to as Eurasia investors.

#EUA – Phil Taylor guest post

Phil holds 28.9m shares at time of writing, one of the largest individual holders in the company and invested since 2012. So when he writes, sensible people listen. Below is as published on Telegram this morning, 6th May 2021 :

Long Post so apologies for that!
The FSP is taking a while and leads to nervousness amongst investors. I took a read back on the recent news from EUA to try and get a handle on our direction and possible outcomes from the FSP. It reinforced my belief that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to be involved in a historically huge deal that may not be very far from coming to fruition.
I always look for the clues from the company and these things start to add up. The story is beginning to reveal itself. Eurasia is in the process of moving from small prospector with a reasonably large find, to owner and developer of a globally significant mind-boggling district of rare metals that’s importance is vital for the development of tomorrow’s technologies and therefore will only increase in value. We now control huge deposits, vastly bigger than was announced not so long ago. The company is now a major force in the area rather than the small prospector we used to be. The race is on to control such assets by not only companies but countries. I believe that when EUA has put all the pieces in place the resulting sale will dwarf the recent deals by which EUA has been benchmarked.

Snippets from recent news and announcements.

From the Notice of EGM
Non-binding offers have been received and are being progressed.
The Board believes the scaling of the Company and its projects should continue while the Formal Sale Process is ongoing.

From RNS’s 9 April ’21
Tamerlan Abdikeev has already added significant value by bringing interested parties from Japan, that are keen to secure PGM deposits. Tamerlan founded INVERO Advisors, an investment, strategy consultancy and M&A boutique focusing on private equity, project finance, global strategy, business development and cross-border M&A.

Japan, a top 4 region in terms of PGM demand in 2020 according to Johnson Matthey, has an ambition to get the leadership position as a hydrogen focused economy

Reputable members of Japan’s business community related to PGM are in discussion to join Tamerlan at Eurasia Japan.

Tamerlan has introduced several Asian companies interested in working with Eurasia, including a Japanese US$21b net revenue company, that is already present in a PGM mining asset.

…developing a new global district for PGM and battery metals mining on Kola.

Monchetundra hosts 1.9Moz PGM reserves and resources within the approved mining permit and a further 13Moz in Eurasia’s adjacent license. In addition, further predominantly open pit deposits exist in the Monchegorsk region and host 104.6Moz of Platinum equivalent Russian Code reserves and resources that are now part of the Rosgeo JV.

The Directors are confident that the ability to allot securities and demonstrate a capacity to develop the Kola PGM and battery metals district independently of other strategic options available to the Company benefits the Company and its Shareholders by improving Eurasia’s negotiating position.

RNS 26 Mar 21
The agreement with Rosgeo, which by expanding Eurasia’s open pit assets both in palladium, platinum and in battery metals by a total of 104.6 Moz Platinum equivalent resources, unlocks a number of additional opportunities for the Company and its shareholders. we look forward to working with Rosgeo, a global company with renowned proficient technical capabilities and the best partner we could have in Russia, as we are making progress on the strategic options available to the Company.

#EUA – Rising Palladium pricing

Thought it might be handy to add some extra rows to the current Net Asset Values on Eurasia Mining assets, given the rising trend for Palladium and Platinum.

Also done a first attempt at how the Rosgeo project might be assigned a NAV.

This excludes any inferred value on the joint venture with Rosgeo, and assumes 75% ownership, but should any licences be secured or further details released, would be very happy to update to include more detailed calculations again. It is clear they have more ounces than can be mined in the next 20 years, so would seek guidance from the Company on how best to value this beast of a project.

Monchetundra and West Kytlim

Rosgeo Project

Initial thoughts on Rosgeo are that I would prefer to be working with a Palladium equivalent figure instead of the 104.6Moz. If it works out at 50-60Moz Pd it would be easier to compile alongside Monchetundra, but maybe there is a Hydrogen Fuel Cell type reason they have shown it as platinum equivalent.

#EUA – upcoming EGM

Getting close to the deadline for voting in the Eurasia Mining EGM. I can’t tell you how to vote, but obviously I was in favour as the Board have asked us to support their resolution.

Send a message via Secure Chat if you have it with your broker like HL or Halifax, II offer it on their website if you adjust your settings to allow Auto Actions linked to your account, ring them up if not. Appreciate X-O charge and the Freetrade ones don’t offer it as they are a no frills service.

Seen a lot of speculation over why they want the resolution to pass and there are many valid reasons it would seem. All we know for sure is that is will assist in their negotations as they work towards a binding proposal.

I just feel that regardless of the outcome I like to know I’ve done what I can to support the companies I invest in – it’s a basic right of being a shareholder and a way to have your voice heard. If you don’t vote it negates your commentary to a large extent.

Hopefully they get this over the line and can continue with their strategy to boost shareholder value which has been amazing to see over the last 18 months.

Further details available in the recent EGM rns and on link below :


Sample text for secure message on HL :

Subject EUA EGM

Dear Sir or Madam,

Reference the upcoming EGM for Eurasia Mining, I wish to appoint the Chairman as the proxy for my vote in favour of all motions.

Best Regards,

<insert name>

Obvously change wording if voting against. If not voting, why are you still reading this!

Settings for Halifax, (HSDL)

Anyone unable to vote via live chats but can’t see the option. (thanks to alta traako for this tip)

Go on google chrome, click the 3 dots on the top right, click settings, click privacy & security, click site settings near the bottom, click pop-ups and redirects, toggle the allowed setting to ON.

Then go back to your provider and the live chat should work.

After you submit your vote remember to turn the settings back off to stop pop ups elsewhere!

#EUA – Alta_Traako EGM rns report

The recent news about the Rosgeo JV [7], the appointment of Tamerlan Abdikeev [16], the mention of Japanese interest [16], and the EGM announcement [17] is exciting but confusing. So, this is my thought process in a somewhat chronological order along with some speculation and why I think it is important that we log in and vote yes in the EGM to support our BOD and help them increase shareholder value.

Brief overview of MT:
•Current reserves in mining permit [1] = 2.2Moz Pd equivalent [2]
•‘Target’ resources within the flanks licence [3] = 13.3Moz Pd equivalent [2]
•Exclusivity zone (not ours …yet) = 7Moz [2]
•Wider Monchegorsky district (not ours… yet) = 17.7Moz [2]
•So, total potential resources as of now 15.5Moz [2]
•Mine plan to produce 1Moz pa [4]
•EPC contract signed with Sinosteel to develop mine if needed [5]

Interesting note:
At 01/07/2020 the additional advertise incentive over and above the current 15.5Moz was “Explorationupside: Expanding mineable reserve base via acquisition of adjacent licences.” [4]. As of the 09/04/2021circular it now states “Expansion: mineable reserve base via the Rosgeo JV.” [6]. Looks like this Rosgeo JVgives them all the additional licences they wanted.

Screenshots for the lazy:

The four pits close to the MT licence:
•Are open pit and suitable for toll treatment [7]

•Incorporated into current (1Moz pa) or new (more than 1Moz pa) mine plan [7]

•Can use current infrastructure at MT [7]

•Faster to develop (get cash quicker) [11]

•Lower cost to develop [11]

•Lower cost to run [11]

•Safer to operate [11]

•Gives buyer the option to transition to underground mining [9, 10]

•Lower cut off grade so more resources economical due to lower costs [12, 13]


The addition of these 4 open pits surrounding MT could constitute the 40Moz Pd that was mentioned in previous RNS [15] and in the investor presentation [2]. The RNS states that in addition to our 15Moz:

  • additional potential resources occurring within 5km of the Monchetundra Mining license andareas neighbouring the Company’s deposits of c.4Moz;
  • And additional potential resources within the wider Monchegorsk district in which theMonchetundra license is located of c.21M oz.
  • The potential for the area could be 40M oz of PGMs, but as stated above this data has not beenindependently verified by Eurasia and other than the area covered by the Company’s existinglicence the Company does not yet have any other licences in the area”.

In the image below, the green part is our current MT licence. The blue parts are Rosgeo licences. If those licences are part of the Rosgeo JV then they could contain the 4 open pits and could constitute the “wider Monchegorsk district” mentioned in the RNS.

Thanks to @R1EXG for making me the nice maps.

The additional five pits (not close to the current MT licence):

  • Are a mix of open and underground pits [7]
  • DD been completed here [7]
  • 20km of exploration and 12 thousand samples taken acros these 5 pits [7]
  • Likely need to develop a mine plan for these as not stated if this has been done
  • This could take us to > 2Moz pa. See GMF calculations for impact of this [14]

SPECULATION – This sounds suspiciously like Volchetuntra [15].

The RNS on 04/12/2019 [15] said:
“The Company would also like to highlight further regional potential specifically in the Volchetundra Project, previously operated by the Company under a Joint Venture with Anglo American from 2004 to 2011, and subsequently surrendered to focus on the Monchetundra Project. Volchetundra occurs 5 km from Monchegorsk. This high palladium deposit now becomes of interest given the recent price appreciation in palladium and the future price outlook. Palladium prices through 2011 averaged less than $600 per ounce. The Company’s database of proprietary information including 12,000m of drilling will be compiled in due course to reassess the projects future potential development. If the Company did want to explore this project again, it would have to re-apply for the relevant licences and there can be no guarantee that they will be granted.”
Now the description of the 5 pits from the 26/04/2021 RNS [7] is the following:
“A further five mostly open pit palladium, platinum, copper, nickel and cobalt assets are included in the JV, where Eurasia has carried out due diligence including c.20km of exploration drilling and some 12 thousand samples taken by Eurasia”

Volchetundra seems to fit the bill from the descriptions. It is also curious that two applications were submitted by Northern Palladium recently. One was for Volchetundra (red box in map below), the other for a zone north of Volchetuntdra (the yellow box in map below). Their application was rejected for Volchetundra but was accepted for the area north. Looks like Volchetundra was being kept for someone else. Maybe for us.

To put the value of the Rosgeo JV into context, EUA’s agreement to acquire the Monchetundra exploration licence began in April 2005 [8]. They worked their way through drilling and studies to gain mining permits [1] and only got the flanks licence in August 2020 [3]. 15 years of work (minimum). This JV offers us the opportunity to acquire the licences to 104.6Moz platinum equivalent that has already been through this entire process, including the feasibility study. Massive positive for an AIM exploration company and massive uplift in shareholder value despite what the SP says.

Combining MT with JV assets:

As per the circular released on 09/04/2021 [6] “The Rosgeo JV aims to establish a world class PGM district on Kola with the Monchetundra asset as the cornerstone project.”. The company clearly are in a great position to sell on the entire Kola districts as it is advertised as a PGM and battery metals district. The reason I think it is all being sold together as opposed to selling MT and keeping the new Rosgeo JV assets is that:

They state Monchetuntra is cornerstone of the project. It can no longer be the cornerstone of the Kola district if it is sold off, splitting up the project.

  • Company boasts strong negotiating power as the own MT. MT is the only mining licence there with anexclusivity radius. Selling it off therefore means we have no mining licence and giving away our advantage. With the additional assets we can now say that “if you want access to MT then you have to buy the lot”
  • The information tells us that the 4 open pits that can use the current (or new) MT plan and infrastructure. If we sell MT then we would need another plan for the 4 new open pit assets or pay the buyer of MT to use the infrastructure that we just sold. Do not think our BOD would enjoy that idea.
  • If we sold MT then a buyer would now be the dominant player in the region and we would be left with the JV assets but no mining licence and no guarantee that anyone would buy the remaining assets. Better say we will only part with MT if the additional assets are bought too. We win from a larger sale, Rosgeo win as they can piggyback on our sale to offload their licences and make money, the buyer wins as they get the entire region to themselves.

EGM announcement:

With all the great stuff above its easy to ask why the BOD need the power to allot shares. Surely, we can just sell the lot now. Well, there are any number of reasons but for me the simplest is usually the correct one. Simplest one being Japanese interest [16]. The BOD state that they are:

“confident that the ability to allot securities and demonstrate a capacity to develop the Kola PGM and battery metals district independently of other strategic options available to the Company benefits the Company and its Shareholders by improving Eurasia’s negotiating position.”

They also announced out of the blue that ‘Eurasia Japan’ exists, that Tamerlan Abdikeev has been doing a grand old job bringing Japanese interest in our assets, and they made a point of mentioning that Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) took a 12.95% position in Hanwa’s acquisition of Platinum Group Metals Ltd in South Africa [16]. We know that EUA do not pad out RNS announcements with fluff so there is a clear reason to mentioning JOGMEC and Hanwa. In my opinion, they will be involved in the sale and they are following the same model they used at Bushveld (i.e. Hanwa buy their position (or all of it) with JOGMEC support).

So, if the sale FSP is almost complete, how does raising cash benefit shareholders more than just selling now? A few reasons spring to mind. Some more realistic than others:

1.Rather than activate the Rosgeo earn out, we just buy the licences. See GMF78 calculations [14].
2. The additional 25% Rosgeo stake. Maybe the audit is complete, and we are going to buy the 25% so that we can sell it all. The RNS [7] states:
a.“Eurasia also has a call option to acquire 25% from Rosgeo after completion of thereserves audit under the JORC Code.”
3. There is 20% of MT out there in the ether that the BOD might have their sights on.
4. Could be anything else. One thing is for sure. The EGM is for the benefit of shareholder value. A massive turn out of PI voting in support of the BOD will speak volumes so make sure you getyour vote in. EUA 2021!


Thanks to A1ex, GMF78, K Knauf & Duggy for help compiling this information.

#NCYT guest post – Blackbird Investing

Disclaimer: I hold shares in Novacyt, and of course that makes me an optimist regarding its future. I am however not a financial advisor and as such the post below is merely my opinion and you should always do your own research and make your own decisions when it comes to investing.

11th April 2021

Stock: NCYT (Euronext: ALNOV)

Current share price: 424p

Market cap: £300m


At this point I think every single AIM investor has heard of Novacyt, and if you’ve found this article you for sure know who they are anyway so I’ll spare the blurb about who they are, what they do etc and get right into it. The news that landed intraday on Friday regarding disputes with the DHSC sent the shares tumbling and likely left a lot of investors with a lack of sleep to start their weekend, anticipating the future and what will happen on Monday.

Now I obviously can’t predict what the share price will do, but I can determine what my own personal course of action will be and explain why – buy and hold. It’s more important than ever in rough times to take a step back, take emotion out of the equation and get back to the basics of investing which is research. I’m not planning on holding based on some “Diamond hands YOLO” strategy, and I’m not either doing it out of pride. I’m doing it out of what I believe to be an overwhelming amount of publically available numerical data showing that this company is just way way undervalued, and that the risk to reward profile has just got a whole lot better with this drop, not worse as some believe.

For the purpose of this article, I will not be speculating on the DHSC news and trying to analyse the words to come to a speculative conculsion, I will be looking at the current and future situation from a numbers perspective.


Valuing companies on AIM is a science as accurate as crystal ball gazing, and more often than not the fundamentals of a Company seem to account for at most 5% of the valuation equation, with the remaining 95% being a mixture of so called “sentiment”, whether certain “news” outlets have posted an article (usually a strong buy signal, even if the article usually says “short”) and just plain coin flipping.

But we have to start somewhere and that somewhere is the balance sheet, especially I think with companies that are at a certain stage of maturity. And by maturity, I mean companies that are actually making money to even actually have a balance sheet worth looking at.

So quick look back to 2020. These are the unaudited numbers Novacyt ended the year with:


Now hopefully, like me you’re already thinking “whoa whoa whoa, you’re telling me this company had £277m revenue and are valued at only £300m?!”. Crazy I know.

These numbers don’t even tell the full story though of the growth of the company through the year. Let’s instead look at the split between H1 & H2 numbers:

*This is the growth in cash in H2 and does not factor in e.g cash spent on the acquisition of IT-IS

So H2 provided over 3 times the amount of each figure than H1, huge growth. Now I know what the pessimists are thinking, “yeah but that was peak covid, since Christmas its all gone down hill and the company won’t make any money anymore!”

Well luckily the main point of the RNS yesterday was to actually be a Quarterly trading update which many seem to have missed, so we now have more data to analyse and see just how bad the “drop” in revenues is. Unaudited results for Q1 2021 have come in at £72.6m. Unfortunately, we didn’t get a Q3 2020 update so we don’t know the exact split of the revenues in H2 but splitting it down the middle, and assuming ~75% of H1 revenues came in Q2 (after the covid test hit markets) the picture of the last 5 quarters is as follows:

So looking at just the last 4 quarters to create a full year of pandemic related revenue (Q2 2020 to Q1 2021), that’ll I henceforth refer to as my “Interim FY” – that’s £333.8m of revenue. And the company MCap is 10% below that.

As I said, AIM company valuations are completely disjointed from the reality of fundamentals but luckily for me, this is usually observed more in the short term, with the time eventually filtering out what’s what, and what I as an investor try to take advantage of.


A lot of the chat on various forums relating to NCYT valuation is its very low Price to earnings ratio, or the “P/E” Ratio. At this stage I’m not a huge fan of using that metric as it doesn’t take into account the absolutely huge pile of cash the company is sitting on. And it is by all measures, a huge pile of cash.

For that reason, I prefer to use the Enterprise Value/EBITDA as the calculation for enterprise value takes into account cash.

Enterprise value = Market Cap + Debts – Cash

So as we now have Q1 revenues I will keep using my special “Interim FY” in the calculations rather than 2020 FY. MCap at the time of writing is:

70,626,048 * £4.24 = £299.4m

Let’s call it an even £300m shall we?

Debts = £0, easy (however, debt ≠ always bad especially if its productive and at low interest. I personally feel NCYT should go big or go home with debt for bigger acquisitions)

To get the cash for my “interim FY” we need to do a little maths on the cash position growth from the £91.8m in Q1 2020. Starting off, we can calculate that EBITDA ratio to revenue for FY2020 was 67.5%, and in the 2020 Trading update we got the following line:

Figure 1 – quote from RNS 29/01/21

So Revenue in Q1 2021 was £72.6m, which becomes and EBITDA of £49m, which in turn becomes £39.2m pure cash added to the already massive pile.

Side note, that’s nearly half a million pounds in PURE CASH added to Novacyts bank account EVERY DAY! It’s an important observation that has to be made to understand the value of this company moving forward despite opinions on revenue direction, so important in fact I’m going to underline in, put it in bold and in font larger:

Due to the upfront cost of production ramp up and IT-IS acquisition being out of the way, the conversion of revenue to free cash flow is significantly higher than in 2020.

Don’t believe me? Just look at the numbers – £91.8m cash for all of 2020 and estimates are the company got nearly half that in the first quarter alone despite reduce quarterly revenue.

Sorry, bit of a side track from the EV/EBITDA calcs again but getting back to it we get cash = £91.8m + £39.2m = £131m

So baking it all together:

Enterprise Value = £300m +£0 – £131m = £169m

That is, again in my opinion, crazy insane low.


EBITDA is a quick one, in 2020 EBITDA conversion was 67.5% and we’re working on a revenue of £333.8m for the “Interim FY”:

EBITDA = £333.8m x 0.675 = £225.3m


So smashing these two figures together to get a ratio we get 0.75

As a number on its own, this doesn’t mean much at all, is it high? Low?. We need to compare to other companies and sector averages. Doing some good old googling:

  • Investopedia says in January 2020, the average EV/EBITDA ratio of the S&P500 was 14.2
  • Roche Holding = 11.28 (Source: gurufocus.com)
  • Thermo Fisher = 19.76 (Source: gurufocus.com)
  • Perkin Elmer = 13.94 (Source: gurufocus.com)

No the decimal is not in the wrong place.

Averaging the numbers of these 3 big players gives 15. This means at this current level of revenue, EBITDA, and cash and doing the maths in reverse, for Novacyt to also have a EV/EBITDA ratio of 15 it would have to have a MCap of £3.51 BILLION

That’s a share price of £49.69.

Ok of course that’s even in my bullish opinion a bit high of a target though as it’s especially a bit unfair to compare NCYT to huge players with multiple revenue streams, so lets instead use what is considered by Investopedia a “healthy” number of 10. This would require a share price of £33.75

What about the future

Now I can imagine the “derampers” if they were to read this (they’re probably not) would at this point scream at their monitors and furiously type on LSE “whoa who is this idiot! That’s a multibagger impossible! Covid is over! There’s no revenue left! DHSC have gone ! LFTs fo’ lyfe!!” yada yada yada.

And you know what? They have a point to a degree, who would have though. Its always good to evaluate both sides of the coin. What I mean is all this maths has been based on what is now historical returns and as the saying goes, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Who am I kidding, you all know that you’re all invested on AIM.

So we need to redo the maths to give us a range of potential options on assumptions of future revenue. So lets change some factors and recalculate.

We know from the previous RNS that of the £72.6m revenue in Q1 2021, 50% of it was DHSC. So lets assume that this is no longer applicable moving forward. That gives us a potential forward looking quarterly revenue figure in this “quieter” Covid period (in the UK at least, RoW is a different story) from private and international sales of £36.3m from private and international sales.

From here one can take several approaches, we either assume this number will:

  1. Go up quarter by quarter as the company are growing sales abroad and the private PCR sector is set to boom for international travel over summer
  2. Drop quarter by quarter as “covid goes away”
  3. Assume it will largely on average stay flat for the next year as testing requirements drop over summer but pick up again next winter

Rather than guess, let’s make a range then so we cover all bases. For the best-case scenario, I will assume Q2 2021 will have bang on £36.3m revenue which then grows by 25% quarter on quarter for the next year. For the worst-case scenario, I will start with £36.3m in Q2 and then drop the revenue 15% quarter on quarter. Why have I selected different percentages? Because we have already slashed the known revenue by 50% we are already in a predominantly bullish case, and because my personal opinion is that the former is more likely. When you do you own calculations, I urge you to use the figures you believe to be most likely. You will do your own calculations yes?

Please note, all these calcs assume that the Novacyt Group is a dragon sitting on a pile of gold, and refuses to spend any of the cash they currently have in favour of sitting on it, and also in each quarter the new cash is merely added to the pile (this changes the Enterprise value remember).

Here’s a little table outlining the “Interim FY 21 results” which would be Q2 2021 to Q1 2022. I’ve formatted such that you can try and follow along the calculations, and I’ve even also at the end shown different bullish/bearish multiples of EV/EBITDA ratio targets as this is also an unknown based on forward looking market opinion.

Again, we are trying to figure out a range of options, not a “what is it worth to the penny”.

Highlighted in yellow is the mid EV case calculated for a “healthy” company. And then averaging the bullish and the bearish cases gives a finger in the air of ~£18.50

This table shows me that potentially even in the bearish of the bearish cases, that is with a low EV/EBITDA ratio and assuming our revenue gets slashed by 50% by Q2 and drops continuously – the company is still perhaps 50% undervalued.

Keep in mind with this table that even the bullish cases slash the revenue by 50% from next quarter. This also even fits the narrative that the company outlines in the RNS that “overall 2021 revenues may be lower than market expectations”. This because he market is perhaps expecting more than the £333 over the past 12 months, and even the bullish case above only therefore assumes a £209m revenue of the next 12 months.

Another factor to keep in mind – the Novacyt Group is not a dragon. By this I mean they won’t forever be sitting on this pile of cash doing nothing, they have already said they are looking at bolt on acquisitions for the group with although will affect the companies Enterprise Value in the equations, will likely have a bigger effect on the EBITDA line. These acquisitions will also be such that they ensure this level of EBITDA remains long after Covid is gone.

Of course, with the share price being so disjointed from my calculations I have to ask myself if I have plugged in something horribly wrong. I’ll let you make your own minds up but I personally think no, as the amount I would have to tweak the input data such as revenue drop, to get to “yeah £4 is fair value” just doesn’t make sense to me.

Others may of course dispute this, and will say “your EV/EBITDA should be 2 and your quarter on quarter drop in revenue should be 40%”. But there is no strong evidence in my opinion to support that case but always happy to hear the other side of the coin. At the end of the day, undervalued companies do exist and the market isn’t always right, just look at Eurasia Mining that sat well below a penny per share despite public information being available on the resource they were sitting on.

Some Supporting data for the Bullish case

So obviously, of the options in the table I lean to the bullish case. I don’t however assume we will get to EV/EBITDA ratio of 15, and I do think until the company proves they can maintain revenues post Covid through acquisitions etc that we will be on the lower end of the range perhaps ~6-7, but I also don’t believe revenues will halve in Q2 and I think they will stay higher than the market seems to be assuming they will be without the DHSC:

Private testing

It is obvious that in the UK moving forward the cost of PCR tests seems to be set to be footed by the consumer, and not the government. This kind of makes sense as those using PCR tests will primarily be being those going on nice holidays and potentially bringing back Covid, so understandable to me that the taxpayer shouldn’t foot this bill. Also the government has been abundantly clear that the variant concern means PCR has to be used to be better safe than sorry as LFTs risk letting through false negatives. I agree also that in this case it is preferable to have false positives than false negatives.

Also, as the DHSC had clauses in their contract they had to be offered the lowest price of anyone on Primerdesign covid tests, all private tests will likely have higher margins.

Here is a link to the list of providers approved for the much stricter on quality “Day 2 and day 8” PCR test required for all arrivals. You will see the list has been updated to also include which lab each supplier uses.


It quickly becomes clear that very few specific labs are actually approved for use as all these suppliers end up sending tests to the same handful of labs, most notably:

  • Nationwide Pathology
  • Biograd
  • 20/30 labs
  • Oncologica
  • Nonacus
  • Alphabiolabs

It appears Nationwide Pathology, Biograd and 20/30 labs all use Primerdesign tests. This means that currently at least 25 of the 108 providers use Primerdesign. That is a pretty big market share in my opinion. I draw this conclusion from these sources:

Nationwide Pathology UKAS accreditation:

20/30 labs website:

Biograd employee post on Linkedin (posted by a Twitter user):

There are also many other private clinics that have been found by other investors to be using Primerdeisgn tests for other private testing applications, here is just a few I found putting nearly zero effort into Google:

Katalyst Labs






At the time of writing, other investors on twitter have uncovered many many more 3rd party suppliers.

International testing

The UK seems to be on top of cases and vaccinations for now, but that does not mean the world is Covid free. There is a big world outside the UK borders, and looking at the WHO covid meter, the second wave is unfortunately in full swing globally:

Furthermore, the company have a new Chief Commercial Officer who is based in South America. You don’t hire people on the other side of the globe in such a senior position to sell to the NHS:

Public Testing

Yes I’m actually going to dip my toe in here despite the latest news. I personally don’t believe that the government can have sufficient quantities Covid-19 PCR tests to last till 2022.

In Q4, 28 million PCR tests were conducted by the UK government. In Q1, this hadn’t shrunk as people though despite no longer being in the peak, but a higher overall daily average meant that 29 million tests were conducted. Here is a graph I have compiled from data available at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing. As you can see PCR testing is still very high in the UK and this could grow as the country now relaxes measures. Keep in mind, its not just those with symptoms that need to PCR test but also people like care home staff and patients in hospital for procedures and operations of which there is sure to be a huge back log.

A £35m order in Q1 is enough to buy around 3.5 million tests. At this rate of testing, that lasts 2 weeks. Of course, there are more suppliers but I believe Novacyt has held more than a 4% market share, which is what they would hold for 3.5m tests to last 365 days. My own observation is that the RNS only mentions they have bought enough PROmate, no word of what their potential plans are for SNPsig, or Pathflow.

NGOs & Other Governments

We have already seen orders from NGOs and the company have said in statements other governments also buy our products. No more needs to even be said.


I think this angle needs its own article as there is a lot of assumptions and cross referencing to look at as well as determining the case for both buyers and seller etc, but just a couple of days ago Hologic acquired Mobidiag for 18 times their revenue. Take that multiple, scroll up, and multiply it by our revenues and you;ve got one more reason I’m invested. The probability is very low, but it adds to the overall positive Expected Value I believe holding NCYT shares has from this level.



I haven’t even mentioned the ties with Astra Zeneca, the SNPsig assay, the LFTs that have been released and are currently in development. They’ll also have to wait till another day, but they all do add value.


If you’ve made it this far, well done – this ended up a lot longer than I anticipated! As shown it is my opinion that Novacyt is a significantly undervalued company even if the DHSC never orders a single additional test and even if revenues halve for the upcoming year. A situation I already find highly unlikely to materialise as people were already claiming the company would have nothing in Q1 but ended up with £72.6m in revenue.

I strongly advise people to do their own calculations on all their holdings using their own judgement on the range of eventualities that need to be accounted for. Also try and think of situations that you would otherwise not expect, take emotion out of the equation. I have some personal more specific targets on the share price at different time frames (all which remain flexible as new information is uncovered and revealed) but in the interest of “DYOR” I will not be giving these out to avoid people skim reading and then hurling abuse down the line if things go tits up. Investing is a game of probability, and probability goes both ways. My opinion at this stage though is the share is at the very least a hold, but with significant upside on the buy – hence why my holding is very likely to increase on Monday. And as new news comes out, I can update my table above e.g plugging in the true Q2 results when they arrive.

Till next time, and thanks for letting me write a guest post!

Blackbird Investing

#EUA – PGM and the LPPM

** This post will be added to as more of the market is found.

So where do all the millions of ounces that get mined every year end up? Long story short, the automotive sector dominates. But who are the main players, the secondary traders and refiners. Whilst I believe a miner is most likely to buy Eurasia Mining, it is almost a certainty the buyer will be involved in the sector already. So consider this a definitive list of options!

A good place to start is The London Platinum & Palladium Market – with

32 Platinum Refiners

28 Palladium Refiners

15 Full Members

42 Associate Members

45 Affiliates

Now there is some crossover between lists, so the following is a brief summary of who is who.

GermanyC Hafner GmbHGood Delivery
Heraeus Metals Germany GmbHFull
Saxonia Edelmetalle Good Delivery
UKJohnson Matthey Good Delivery
Anglo American PlatinumAssociate
IndiaHindustan Platinum Pvt. Ltd Good Delivery
ItalyChimet SpA Good Delivery
JapanAida Chemical Industries Good Delivery
Asaha Pretec Corp Good Delivery
Furuya Metal Co Good Delivery
Hanwa Company Limited Affiliate
Honda Trading Affiliate
Ishifuku Metal Industry Good Delivery
Materials Eco-Refining Co Good Delivery
Matsuda Sangyo Co Good Delivery
Mitsubishi MaterialsAffiliate
Nihon Material Co Good Delivery
Sumitomo Corporation Associate
Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K.Full
Tokuriki Honten Co Good Delivery
Toyota Tsusho Affiliate
KoreaHeesung PM Tech Corp Good Delivery
RussiaJoint Stock Company (Gulidov Krasnoyarsk) Good Delivery
Norilsk Nickelnon member
Prioksky Plant Good Delivery
South AfricaHeraeus South Africa (Pty) Ltd Good Delivery
Impala Platinum Ltd Good Delivery
Rustenburg Platinum Mines Ltd Good Delivery
Sylvania Platinum Limited Affiliate
SwitzerlandArgor-Heraeus SA Good Delivery
Metalor Technologies SAFull
Valcambi SAFull
TaiwanSolar Applied Materials Technology Corp Good Delivery
USABASF (Catalysts Division)Full
Johnson Matthey IncFull
Sabin Metal CorporationAssociate
Heraeus Precious Metals North America LLC Good Delivery
Market MakersGoldman SachsFull
ICBC Standard Bank PLCFull
JP Morgan Chase BankFull
Standard Chartered BankFull
Bank of Nova ScotiaFull
Toronto-Dominion BankFull
need researchAlliance Industries LtdAssociate
Amalgamated Metal Trading Limited Associate
Baird & Co LtdAssociate
Cookson Precious MetalsAssociate
CRI / Criterion Catalyst Company LtdAssociate
Metals Trade Overseas AGAssociate
Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc Associate
Mitsui & Co Ltd Associate
Natixis Associate
SCMI LtdAssociate
Sharps PixleyAssociate
Triland Metals LtdAssociate
Umicore AG & Co KGAssociate
UOP CH SarlAssociate
UOP LtdAssociate
Avon Speciality MetalsAffiliate
Colonial Metals Affiliate
Comdaq MetalsAffiliate
DD&Co Limited
Dillon Gage Metals
Eiger Trading Advisors Ltd.
G4S Cash Solutions UK Ltd.
G4S International Logistics (UK) Limited
Gemini Industries Inc.
Gerrards (Precious Metals) Ltd.
GFI Securities Limited
ICAP Securities Limited
Inspectorate International Ltd.
Ivanhoe Mines SA
Loomis International (UK) Ltd
Malca-Amit Commodities Ltd.
Mastermelt Ltd.
Metals Focus Limited
Ospraie Management, LLC
Platinum Group Metals Ltd.
Richmond Commodities Limited
Sojitz Corporation
Techemet Metal Trading LLC
Tharisa Plc
Tokuriki Honten Co. Ltd
Tullett Prebon (Europe) Limited
Western Digital Corporation
Wogen Resources Ltd.
World Platinum Investment Council
Group RevenueCompanyFinancial Info
$69.7bnBASFFrom 2020 Annual Report – EUR 59.1bn. German giant of industry, PGM in Catalysts division with American HQ
$60.6bnToyota Tsusho6.69 trillion yen (2019 annual report). This is the trading division of Toyota.
$48.1bnSumitomoFrom 2019 Annual Reports (2020 due in May). A true giant on the global stage. $12.5bn from metal products and $10bn from mineral resources.
$32.3bnAnglo AmericanFrom 2020 Annual Reports. $8.4bn from PGM mining
$26.4bnHeraeusIn the 2019 financial year, Heraeus generated revenues of €22.4 billion with approximately 14,900 employees in 40 countries. Heraeus is now one of the top 10 family-owned companies in Germany and holds a leading position in its global markets.
$15.5bnNorilsk Nickel2020 Consolidated revenue increased 15% y-o-y to $15.5bn owing to higher prices of palladium and rhodium as well as the scheduled ramp-up of Bystrinsky project; EBITDA decreased 3% y-o-y to $7.7bn.
Largest Palladium miner in world and neighbour to Eurasia site at Monchetundra.
$15.4bnHanwa1.7 trillion Yen (2021 estimates) Hanwa is a trading company with operations spanning non-ferrous metals, metals and alloys, food, petroleum and chemicals, machinery, lumber and many other business sectors. The company has solid positions in all of these businesses.
$13.2bnMitsubishi Materials1.46 trillion yen (2021 estimates), precious metals division, invests in copper mines overseas, urban mining (recycling)
$9.06bnHonda Trading Trading arm of Honda, responsible for over 6% of transactions in PGM each year (from their website)
$7.74bnSibanye StillwaterNet profit of $1.78 billion in 2020, the highest for any year since it was formed in 2013, revenue increased to $7.74 billion from $5.04 billion.
$5.83bnJohnson MattheyFrom 2020 Annual Report, £539m profit, £4.2bn sales (exc precious metals trading)
$1.91bnMatsuda Sangyo MATSUDA SANGYO CO.,LTD. is located in SHINJUKU-KU, TOKYO, Japan and is part of the Steel Service Centers & Other Metal Wholesalers Industry. MATSUDA SANGYO CO.,LTD. has 1,436 total employees across all of its locations and generates $1.91 billion in sales (USD). There are 52 companies in the MATSUDA SANGYO CO.,LTD. corporate family. (DNB report)
$733mSaxonia SAXONIA Holding GmbH has 710 total employees across all of its locations and generates $732.96 million in sales (USD). There are 17 companies in the SAXONIA Holding GmbH corporate family. (DNB report)
$114mSylvania PlatinumFrom 2020 Annual Report, EBIDTA $69.6m
$68mC HafnerC. Hafner GmbH + Co. KG is located in Wimsheim, Baden-Württemberg, Germany and is part of the Primary Metals Manufacturing Industry. C. Hafner GmbH + Co. KG has 198 employees at this location and generates $68.20 million in sales (USD). There are 7 companies in the C. Hafner GmbH + Co. KG corporate family.

Think of it as a handy port of call for background research. Some companies are good enough to list some details on their website, such as Honda Trading involved in over 6% of PGM volume annually. Only an affiliate member so will need to go through the full list to work out how many other major players are hiding in plain view!

from hondatrading website

Finally, the Matthey report is an excellent industry leading annual report. A must read for anyone investing in the PGM sector.

Key highlights (from Matthey report) 

Platinum 2020
  • The platinum market remained in deficit in 2020, with sharply lower supplies, and strong investment demand.
  • Autocatalyst consumption plunged by 22%, with steep falls in European diesel car production.
  • Industrial purchasing was more resilient, especially in China, where petrochemical and glass expansions went ahead.
  • Chinese jewellery demand slumped to a 20-year low, although record gold prices encouraged some retailers to stock more platinum.
  • Japan saw heavy bar purchasing in the first half of 2020, while ETF investment turned strongly positive in the second half.
  • Primary platinum supplies shrank by 20%, due to processing outages and pandemic-related disruption in South Africa.
  • Auto recycling contracted sharply on weak diesel scrap volumes in Europe and processing capacity constraints.
Palladium 2020
  • The palladium market remained in significant deficit, driving the price to all-time highs in early 2020.
  • A plunge in vehicle output was partly offset by higher palladium loadings on gasoline vehicles.
  • Consumption in chemical catalysts remained buoyant, with strong investment in new plants in China.
  • Other industrial demand fell sharply, due to COVID-related disruption and price-driven thrifting.
  • Investment demand remained negative, with further redemption of palladium ETFs.
  • Primary supplies were hit by mine closures and processing outages, while autocatalyst recycling also slowed.
Rhodium 2020
  • The rhodium market moved deeper into deficit as supplies dropped faster than demand.
  • With tighter emissions limits boosting catalyst loadings, auto demand fell by less than 10%.
  • Purchases by glass companies plunged, as high prices stimulated thrifting.
  • Primary supplies contracted sharply due to mine disruption and processing outages in South Africa.
  • The rhodium price surged to an all-time record of $17,000 in December 2020.
Outlook for 2021, all pgm
  • Pgm supply and demand are forecast to bounce back in a V-shaped recovery in 2021.
  • Autocatalyst demand will recover strongly, on higher car output and stricter emissions limits for trucks in China.
  • Industrial consumption will remain robust, with pgm use in chemicals set to reach an all-time high.