With Covid19 still dominating global headlines, thought it time to update the valuation charts to reflect the role test/trace/isolate is having as we attempt to unlock communities and repair the economic damage.
Novacyt have launched two new products in June, Exsig™ Covid-19 Direct and Exsig™ Mag
Both of these are designed to enhance workflow in the lab. Exsig™ Direct is an innovative and proprietary RNA extraction reagent that removes the need for complex, automated magnetic extraction systems. Exsig™ Mag is Novacyt’s RNA extraction reagent containing magnetic beads to be used in laboratories which still wish to run their automated RNA extraction systems. , along with a third new product, a high throughput test called COVID-19 HT (details to be released at time of writing)
This seems to be a natural development from their gold standard PCR test launched earlier this year. Making easier the compatibility between other manufacturers’ products.
The development I think changes the game though, is the mobile COVID-19 testing solution. As per recent RNS, we know it is a combination of Exsig™ Direct and the COVID-19 test optimised to run on the Company’s proprietary q16 and q32 instrumentation. The mobile COVID-19 system will launch in July 2020.
Why am I interested in this above all else? Simple, if they can open up new markets, they increase sales. Having the gold standard Covid-19 test available where it is needed, will enable large scale events to take place again with confidence. Already we are starting to see this trend develop. Whether it is countries insisting on a recent Covid-19 antigen test result (Tunisia), or Airlines seeking ways of ensuring passengers are safe to travel (Emirates in Pakistan), the need to conduct more testing is apparent.
Mass testing will work best if it is done by professionals, using kits that are as close to 100% accurate as possible. Done in places where large numbers of people wish to congregate. If a small 5% sample is taken at every event, followed up as quickly as possible by a trace and isolate service, we can unlock the world to some extent and focus on hotspot areas as they flare up rather than a mass lockdown scenario.
If testing continues at current levels, it would inevitably fall through competition alone. The new product range will enhance the attractiveness of PCR testing again, recognising the near 100% accuracy compared to other as yet unproven methods. This will offset decline to some extent, but launch of mobile testing will provide additional revenue through 2021 and maintain margins.
This could result in EBITDA around £390m for FY 2020, and £520m for FY 2021. After taxes, a large cashpile around £700m would be generated for the company to invest or return as dividends.
At current predictions, a conservative price of £5.80 per share by end of FY 2020 and then £10.45 per share by end of FY 2021 seems a minimum based on cash and little sentiment.
Next update remains key – if they are closer to £200m in revenue these predictions will gain greater accuracy, otherwise happy to remodel as appropriate.
Appendix – chart data in full
|Test Capability 2020||* inc new products|
|Test Capability 2021|